Alrighty then, the last Unit for this subject, times goes by so fast. It feels like only yesterday that I entered the classroom. I'll say, it was one heck of a year, and I'm going to miss every second of it.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:
Balance of Payments
- Measure of money inflows and outflows between the U.S. and the World (ROW).
- Inflows are referred to as credits
- Outflows are referred to as debits
- The Balance of Payments is divided into 3 accounts
- Current Account
- Capital/Financial Account
- Federal Reserves Account
- Every transaction in the balance of payments is recorded twice in accordance with standard accounting price
- Ex) US manufacture, John Deere, exports $50 million worth of farm equipment to Ireland.
- A credit of $50 million to the capital/financial account (+ $50 million worth of Euros or financial assets)
- Balance of Trade or Net Exports
- Exports of Goods/Serves- Imports of Goods/Services
- Exports create a credit to the balance of payments
- Imports create a debit to the balance of payments
- Net Foreign Income
- Income earned by US owned foreign assets- Income paid to foreign held US assets
- Ex) Interest payments on US owned Brazilian bonds- Interest payments on German owned US Treasury bonds
- Net Transfers (tend to be unilateral)
- Foreign Aid --> a debit to the current account
- Mexican workers send away to family back in Mexico
- The balance of capital ownership
- Includes the purchase of both real and financial assets
- Direct investment in the US is a credit to the capital account
- Ex) the Toyota Factory in San Antonio
- Direct investment by US firms/individuals in a foreign country are debits to the capital account
- Ex) Intel Factory in San Jose, Costa Rica.
- Purchase of foreign financial assets represents a debit to the capital account
- Ex) Woman Buffet buys stock in Petrochina.
- Purchase of domestic financial assets by foreigners represents a credit to the capital account.
- Ex) The United Arab Emirates Sovereign wealth finds purchases a large stake in NASDAQ.
- What causes Capital/Financial Flows?
- Differences in rates of return of interest
- Ceteris Paribus, savings will flow toward higher returns
- Relationship between Current and Capital account
- Remember double entry bookkeeping?
- The current account and the capital account should zero each other out.
- That is... if the current account has a negative balance (deficit), then the capital account should then have a positive balance (surplus)
- The foreign currency holdings of the United States Federal Reserve System
- When there is a balance of payments surplus the Fed accumulates foreign currency and debits the balance of payments.
- When there is a balance of payments deficit, the Fed depletes its reserves of foreign currency and credits the balance of payments
- The Official Reserves zero out the balance of payments
Credits (Additions to a nation's account) Debits (Subsidies to a nation's account)
- How to calculate the following:
- Balance on Trade
- merchandise & service exports (-) merchandise & service imports
- Trade deficits occurs when the balance on trade is negative (Imports > Exports)
Trade surplus occurs when the balance on trade is positive (Exports > Imports) - Balance on Current Account
- Balance on Trade [exports/imports] (+) Net investment outcome (+) Transfer Payments
- Official Reserves
- Nationally change in Capital Account (+) change in Current Account (+) change in Official Reserves = 0
Foreign Exchange (FOREX)
- The buying and selling of currency
- Ex) In order to purchase souvenirs in France, it is first necessary for Americans to sell (supply) their dollars and buy (demand) Euros.
- The Exchange rate (e) is determined in the foreign currency markets.
- Ex) the current exchange rate is approximately 77 Japanese Yen to 1 US Dollar
- Simply put, the exchange rate is the price of a currency.
- Do not try to calculate the exact exchange rate
- Exchange rates (e) are a function of the supply and demand for currency.
- An increase in the supply of a currency will decrease the exchange rate of currency
- A decrease in supply of a currency will increase the exchange rate of a currency
- A increase in demand for a currency will increase the exchange rate of a currency
- A decrease in demand for a currency will decrease the exchange rate of a currency
- Appreciation- currency increase in value (e up)
- Depreciation- currency decrease in value (e down)
- Ex) Germans go to America to shop, supply of Euros increase and demand for dollars will increase. This causes the Euro depreciate and dollar appreciates
- Consumer Tastes
- Ex) went for Japanese goods create increase in dollar supply in the currency exchange market which leads to depreciation of dollar and appreciation of Yen
- Relative Income
- Ex) Mexico's economy is strong and the US economy is in recession, then Mexicans will buy more American goods, in creating demand for the dollar, causes the dollar to appreciate and the peso to depreciate.
- Relative Price Level
- Ex) Price level is higher in Canada than in the US, American goods cheaper than Canadian goods, Canadians import more US goods causing dollar to appreciate and Canadian Dollar to depreciate.
- Speculation
- Ex) If US expect Swiss interest rates to climb, US will demand Swiss Francs in order to earn higher rates of return
- Demand $- Exports and Capital Inflows
- when the US exports goods/services to other countries, they need OUR dollar to complete the transaction.
- so they demand OUR money, first, they need to supply theirs.
- Supply $- imports and capital outflows
- When we import goods/services from other countries, we need THEIR money to complete the transaction.
- so we demand THEIR money, we need to supply ours
- TIPS
- Always change the D line on one currency graph, the S line o the other currency's s graph.
- Move the lines of the two currency graphs in the same direction (right or left) and you will have the correct answer
- If D on one graph increases, S on the other will increase
- If D moves to the left S will move to the left on the other graph.












